The Fed is Finished Hiking Rates… FOREVER?!
Last week, the Fed issued one of its most extraordinary statements in history.
The terms were laid out in Fed speak, but to paraphrase, the Fed stated the following:
- Its current QE program of $60 billion per month will run at least into June 2020.
- The Fed is aware that its current easing cycle is similar to the one of 1998 which induced the Tech Bubble.
- The Fed needs to see a “persistent” rise in inflation before it raises rates again.
If you had to summate the above in one straight-forward sentence it would be:
“We are going to print a STAGGERING amount of money in the next 12 months.”
First and foremost, QE is the program through which a central bank prints new money and then uses it to buy debt from bank/financial institutions, in turn hoping to boost the financial system.
The Fed’s current QE program will run for another six months. That means we’re talking about AT LEAST $360 BILLION in new money being funneled into the financial system.
Regarding #2 in the list above… the Fed is effectively admitting it wants to create a massive stock market bubble. The last time the Fed cut interest rates three times while the economy was growing was in 1998. That was what caused stocks to go absolutely parabolic in the biggest stock market bubble of all time.
The Fed just admitted it is currently engaging in the same policies!
Which brings us to #3 in the list above… the really BIG admission… that the Fed won’t raise interest rates again until it sees a “persistent” rise in inflation.
“Persistent” is Fed speak for a LOOOONG time. We’re talking about AT LEAST four to six months. The Fed is effectively admitting it needs to see inflation run hot for roughly one-third to half of a year before it raises interest rates again.
And given that the Fed itself decides how it wants to measure inflation, what the Fed has basically admitted is that it won’t be raising interest rates any time soon – possibly EVER.
Again, the Fed has implicitly admitted that it is going to print a STAGGERING amount of money, allowing inflation to get out of control.
The effect of this announcement was immediate.
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As you can see on the chart below, the U.S. dollar broke its bull market trendline to the downside.
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Editor, Money & Crisis