The Greatest Screw Up of Our Lifetime
The Center for Disease Control (CDC) just lowered the number of COVID-19 deaths by 30,000.
That is not a typo.
The official numbers being thrown around by the media suggest that COVID-19 has killed over 65,000 Americans. This is based on an estimate from the CDC where “death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths.”  [Emphasis added.]
Put another way, a percentage of the 65,000 deaths (and we don’t know how large that percentage is) is based on assumptions.
By way of contrast, the CDC also publishes a separate table of “provisional deaths” related to COVID-19. It states that this data is “our most comprehensive picture of lives lost to COVID-19. These estimates are based on death certificates, which are the most reliable source of data.”  [Emphasis added.]
As of May 1, 2020, the number of provisional deaths is 37,038.
More than HALF of these numbers come from one part of the country – New York City, New York state, and New Jersey account for over 21,000 deaths.
Now… the provisional numbers do feature a time-lag – the CDC must wait for death certificates to confirm these cases. So that 37,038 could climb higher in the next few weeks.
However, the fact remains that this data suggests the REAL number of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. is currently under 40,000, and heavily concentrated in just one part of the country.
Why do I bring this up today?
To get you to consider this: We just shut down the ENTIRE economy for an illness that was a major problem for only one particular area of the country.
First, I want to be clear here. I am not making light of COVID-19. I am aware the illness is horrific for those who contract it. And I, like everyone, am very sorry for those who have contracted it, or lost a loved one to it.
However, looking at the above numbers, did it warrant putting 330 MILLION people on lockdown for an illness that killed just 37,000… of which 21,000 were located in two states?
Bear in mind…
- There are seven states that have yet to record a SINGLE COVID-19 death.
- There are an additional 16 states/territories that have recorded fewer than 100 deaths.
- There are an additional 17 states that have recorded fewer that 500 deaths.
And all of these parts of the country were put on economic lockdown, resulting in 30 MILLION people losing their jobs, along with a spike in suicides, drug usage/overdoses, domestic violence, and other horrors that accompany severe economic contractions.
I believe the hysteria along with the policy response to COVID-19 will go down in history as one of the greatest screw ups of all time.
The media put the entire country into hysterics based on garbage models and even worse predictions for an illness that affected only a small part of the country.
The experts have proven they are not experts at all.
Similarly, the media has proven it could care less about reporting actual facts and is simply in the business of doing anything to damage the Trump administration… including advocating for an economic Armageddon.
But what if it was all just an overhyped “crisis”?
And what if the ultimate result of the media’s fearmongering was an investment opportunity that only comes around once in a generation?
Editor, Money & Crisis