The Fed is Now Cornered… And What Comes Next Determines Everything
The Fed now has a major problem on its hands…
The fact that gold is ripping higher.
Americans see gold as a measure of inflation. Food prices, car prices, home prices, stock prices, practically the price of anything can rise and the average American won’t think “inflation.”
It’s a different story with gold.
Once gold starts ripping higher to the point that the average American notices it… then everyone and their mother starts talking about inflation getting out of control.
We are at that point now. Gold is going absolutely vertical. And it has just hit new all-time highs, rising almost $500 from its March lows.
This is a signal that the market is “smelling” higher inflation. And because gold is now grabbing headlines, the average American is waking up to this fact.
So… what does all this mean?
The Potential for an Inflationary Spiral
The Fed will now either be forced to confront inflation (hike rates or tighten policy) OR it will begin to lose control.
Confronting inflation, by tightening monetary policy, would mean kicking the already weak economy just as it’s getting back on its feet. This is a guaranteed “depression” trigger and stock market crash.
On the flip side, ignoring gold’s move higher means letting inflation get out of control.
Can the Fed afford to let the inflation genie out of the bottle? The last time it did this was in the 1970s, and it didn’t stop until the Fed had raised interest rates to 19%.
This is a literal “no win” situation for the Fed. One choice leads to a depression/crash.
The other leads to stagflation at best – a situation in which inflation is high, economic growth slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. Otherwise known as recession-inflation.
And our money is on stagflation.
We believe the Fed would rather risk letting inflation get out of control than triggering a depression. The Fed has always adopted a “kick the can” mentality when it comes to major problems.
Inflation will prove no different. Which is why we believe inflation will continue to spiral out of control in the coming months.
Editor, Money & Crisis